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AP FACT CHECK: Trump’s imaginary wages, trade falsehoods

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On this Aug. 27, 2018, photograph, President Donald Trump talks on the telephone with Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto, within the Oval Workplace of the White Home in Washington. (AP Photograph/Evan Vucci)

WASHINGTON (AP) — It was every week of exaggeration and outright fiction for President Donald Trump as he sought to push via a trade pact with Mexico, hyped numbers on jobs and raged towards Google and the Russia investigation.

He wrongly describes the deal to switch the three-nation North American Free Trade Settlement as “one of the largest” and made a questionable assertion that he has unilateral authority to exclude Canada if it doesn’t comply with his phrases.

Talking prematurely of Labor Day, Trump additionally declared that staff’ wages are “going up” once they actually aren’t.

A take a look at the claims:

JOBS

TRUMP, boasting about low unemployment charges: “This election is about jobs. And the beauty of the jobs, people that were stuck in one job, didn’t like it, they now got six different alternatives …They get one they like, and they are making more money. Wages are going up.” — Indiana rally Thursday.

THE FACTS: Wages aren’t going up when factoring in greater shopper costs.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics discovered that wages have declined up to now 12 months after adjusting for inflation, even with an increasing U.S. financial system and powerful company income.

Due partially to larger prices for gasoline and housing, shopper costs elevated 2.9 % this summer time from a yr earlier, probably the most in six years. Adjusted for inflation, common hourly earnings for staff have fallen zero.2 %.

The Labor Division stated People are placing in additional time on the job in comparison with final summer time to maintain their earnings about the identical for now. Trump’s tariff disputes might exacerbate the state of affairs by pushing up shopper costs additional, decreasing individuals’s buying energy.

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TRUMP: “The fact is that African/American unemployment is now the lowest in the history of our country.” — tweet Sunday.

THE FACTS: Not precisely. He omits necessary caveats.

Black unemployment did attain a document low, 5.9 %, in Might. However that determine is risky on a month-to-month foundation. That fee has since risen to six.6 % in July.

Trump is taking credit score he doesn’t deserve for job progress, in response to many economists who view the continued progress because the center of 2009 as the first rationalization for the current hiring. In the meantime, there are a number of indicators that the racial wealth hole is now worsening and the administration seems to have achieved little, if something, to particularly tackle this problem.

Probably the most dramatic drop in black unemployment got here underneath President Barack Obama, when it fell from a recession excessive of 16.eight % in March 2010 to 7.eight % in January 2017.

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TRADE

TRUMP: “There is no political necessity to keep Canada in the new NAFTA deal. If we don’t make a fair deal for the U.S. after decades of abuse, Canada will be out. Congress should not interfere w/ these negotiations or I will simply terminate NAFTA entirely & we will be far better off.” — tweet Saturday.

THE FACTS: Not so quick. It’s questionable whether or not Trump can unilaterally exclude Canada from a deal to exchange the three-nation NAFTA settlement, with out the approval of Congress. Any such transfer would possible face prolonged authorized and congressional challenges.

Trump needs to get a trade deal finalized by Dec. 1.

A number of Republicans within the intently divided Senate are insisting that a revised NAFTA deal embrace Canada.

Trump administration negotiations to maintain Canada within the reimagined trade bloc are to renew this week as Washington and Ottawa attempt to break a impasse over points resembling Canada’s dairy market and U.S. efforts to defend drug corporations from generic competitors.

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TRUMP: “This is one of the largest trade deals ever made. Maybe the largest trade deal ever made.” — telephone name Aug. 27 with Mexican President Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto.

THE FACTS: Not even shut. The Trans-Pacific Partnership, negotiated by the Obama administration, included the three NAFTA companions — United States, Canada and Mexico — plus Japan and eight different Pacific Rim nations. Trump withdrew the USA from the pact in his third day in workplace.

Even the TPP shrinks compared to the Uruguay Spherical of trade negotiations. Concluded in 1994, the spherical created the World Trade Group and was signed by 123 nations. The Federal Reserve Financial institution of Boston discovered the next yr that the WTO’s preliminary membership accounted for greater than 90 % of worldwide financial output.

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TRUMP: “We made the deal with Mexico. …We’re starting negotiations with Canada, pretty much immediately … It’s going to be a — it’s a smaller segment, as you know. Mexico is a very large trading partner.” — telephone name Aug. 27 with Peña Nieto.

THE FACTS: Trump seems to be suggesting that Mexico is a much bigger U.S. buying and selling companion than Canada. That’s not the case. America’s two-way trade — exports plus imports — got here to $680 billion with Canada final yr. That’s in comparison with $622 billion with Mexico.

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TRUMP: “I smile at Senators and others talking about how good free trade is for the U.S. What they don’t say is that we lose Jobs and over 800 Billion Dollars a year on really dumb Trade Deals….and these same countries Tariff us to death.” — tweet Tuesday.

THE FACTS: The $800 billion is a reference to America’s trade deficit final yr. However Trump exaggerates the dimensions of the hole between what the U.S. sells and what it buys from the remainder of the world. The trade deficit in items and providers got here to $552 billion in 2017. America ran an $807 billion deficit in items similar to automobiles and equipment. However Trump ignored America’s $255 billion surplus in providers corresponding to schooling and finance.

Mainstream economists additionally take problem with Trump’s assertion that trade deficits quantity to a loss for america. The cash didn’t simply vanish. In trade for what they spent on imports, People received the good thing about proudly owning all the things from made-in-China iPhones to French wine.

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BORDER WALL

TRUMP: “The wall will be paid for very easily by Mexico. It will ultimately be paid for by Mexico.” — remarks Tuesday.

THE FACTS: Not in line with Mexico. Instantly after Trump’s remarks, Mexican Overseas Minister Luis Videgaray tweeted to emphasize, as soon as once more, that his nation gained’t foot the invoice for a wall alongside the U.S.-Mexico border.

Videgaray wrote that his nation has been “absolutely clear” that Mexico “will NEVER pay for a wall.”

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GOOGLE

VIDEO TWEETED BY TRUMP: “For years, Google promoted President Obama’s State of the Union on its homepage. When President Trump took office, Google stopped.” — tweet Wednesday.

THE FACTS: The video is wrong as to Trump.

There’s no dispute that Google promoted Obama’s State of the Union speeches from 2012 to 2016, in line with webpages captured by the Wayback Machine, an web archive website.

In a press release, Google stated it has not traditionally promoted “the first address to Congress by a new president, which is technically not a State of the Union address,” so it didn’t achieve this in both 2009, when Obama first took workplace, or 2017, Trump’s first yr as president.

For 2018, a number of net pages captured by Wayback Machine present the Google homepage promoting a livestream of Trump’s speech with the phrases: “Live! Watch President Trump’s State of the Union address on YouTube.”

The archive website exhibits the webpages in Greenwich Imply Time, which is a number of hours forward of the Japanese time zone within the U.S. Meaning the related pictures of the Google homepage selling Trump’s prime-time Washington speech on Jan. 30 are dated at some point later, on Jan. 31, Mark Graham, director of the Wayback Machine archive website, advised The Related Press.

Trump’s tweet follows his accusations, made with out legitimate proof, that Google and different U.S. tech corporations are rigging search outcomes in order that they spotlight destructive protection about him.

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RUSSIA INVESTIGATION

TRUMP: “What’s going on at @CNN is happening, to different degrees, at other networks – with @NBCNews being the worst … When Lester Holt got caught fudging my tape on Russia, they were hurt badly!” — tweet Thursday.

THE FACTS: There isn’t a proof of the NBC interview having been “fudged” or doctored in any approach, and the White Home didn’t reply to requests relating to what Trump was referring to. NBC declined to remark.

Within the interview, Trump referred partially to “this Russia thing” as a consideration in his determination to fireside Comey. Particular counsel Robert Mueller is investigating attainable obstruction of justice within the Russia probe.

It’s potential Trump is annoyed that different feedback from the identical interview might have acquired much less consideration.

Minutes after he acknowledged that “this Russia thing” was on his thoughts when he fired Comey, Trump additionally acknowledged that he knew the choice to terminate him may truly extend the investigation. In reality it did, with Mueller investigating the firing for potential obstruction.

His legal professionals and different supporters have contended that that sentiment is definitely useful for the president, suggesting he couldn’t have been making an attempt to impede the investigation by doing one thing that he knew would truly draw it out longer.

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CLINTON EMAILS

TRUMP: “Report simply out: ‘China hacked Hillary Clinton’s personal E mail Server.’ — tweet Tuesday.

TRUMP: “Hillary Clinton’s Emails, many of which are Classified Information, got hacked by China. Next move better be by the FBI & DOJ or, after all of their other missteps (Comey, McCabe, Strzok, Page, Ohr, FISA, Dirty Dossier etc.), their credibility will be forever gone!” — tweet Wednesday.

THE FACTS: Trump’s personal regulation enforcement businesses dispute that.

Trump seems to be citing a narrative by the right-leaning Every day Caller publication, which reported that a Chinese language-owned firm in Washington, D.C., space hacked Clinton’s e-mail server.

However FBI and Justice Division officers have stated publicly that there was no proof Clinton’s server was hacked by a overseas energy.

A June report from the Justice Division’s inspector basic on the FBI’s dealing with of the Clinton investigation stated FBI specialists didn’t discover proof that the server had been hacked, with one forensics agent saying he felt “fairly confident that there wasn’t an intrusion.”

An FBI official stated Wednesday after the Every day Caller story and Trump tweet that the “FBI has not found any evidence the servers were compromised.”

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Related Press writers Eric Tucker, Josh Boak and Jill Colvin contributed to this report.

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EDITOR’S NOTE _ A take a look at the veracity of claims by political figures